NFL conference title games bold predictions: Who decides Super Bowl 59 matchup?

The Super Bowl 59 matchup is about to be set.

For the four teams still left standing in the conference title games, it might seem like there’s little room for surprise. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles have already met twice this season, with the NFC East rivals splitting the season series. And the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of familiarity with one another, including the Week 11 contest in which Josh Allen and Co. handed Andy Reid’s team its first loss of the season.
But the penultimate weekend of action has a way of producing some unexpected twists, including the San Francisco 49ers’ rally from 17 points down to beat the Detroit Lions last year. Could another defining moment for a franchise be ahead?

Here are our bold predictions for the conference title games this Sunday:

Chris Jones ends drought and collects two sacks
In typical matchups, it’s not so bold to predict All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones will get to the quarterback. But this is different. It’s Buffalo. And Josh Allen.

The Bills’ underappreciated offensive line allowed an NFL-low 14 sacks during the regular season, which included a shutout of the Chiefs during Buffalo’s big win in November. In fact, the Chiefs also didn’t sack the slippery Allen during KC’s divisional playoff win last year. So, I’m thinking the Chiefs defense is overdue. Jones will lead the way – and by example, too – with a pair of sacks to end the drought.
No, it won’t be easy. Allen, rolling with an MVP-credentialed season, is arguably the toughest quarterback in the NFL to bring down, given his knack of extending plays with power, speed and vision. And his elusiveness is only part of the reason the Bills gave up the fewest sacks. Allen helps his O-line’s protection with his improved sense of awareness on pass plays, which translates into knowing exactly when to throw the football as trouble looms with the pass rush. Of course, Allen can also just bolt from the pocket to avoid a sack. It’s worth noting that in the past two meetings between the team, not only wasn’t Allen sacked. He was also Buffalo’s leading rusher, too, in each of those games. Jones had just five sacks during the regular season, which was his lowest total since his rookie year in 2016. Yet perhaps his sack against C.J. Stroud last weekend to open the playoffs was a sign. No doubt, with a Super Bowl berth at stake, his pass-rush could be a serious X-factor.

Patrick Mahomes throws 3 interceptions as three-peat dream ends
The three-time Super Bowl MVP won’t flop his way out of this one.

Mahomes has eight playoff-career interceptions total, and he’s thrown a pair of them three times (twice in the Super Bowl). A three-pick performance would be uncharted territory for him, and it would go a long way in ending the Chiefs’ chances of a three-peat.

Sean McDermott’s defense may not have stars or big names, particularly in the secondary. But that unit will have to turn Mahomes over a time or two to put the Chiefs on the back foot. Add in a desperation interception, and there’s the three – and the Bills may need each one – to pull off the upset and head to New Orleans.

Mahomes has had a somewhat bizarre season when it comes to throwing picks. He tossed at least one in the first seven games of the season, when nine of his 11 occurred. But the two-time league MVP hasn’t thrown a pick in seven straight games.

Of course, the idea of Mahomes turning over the ball at all seems far-fetched. He’s only thrown three picks three times in his entire career, and the Chiefs actually won two of those games. The lone loss was the memorable “Monday Night Football” shootout against the Rams in 2018 that ended 54-51 in favor of Los Angeles. But something drastic has to happen to terminate the Chiefs’ magic. This is it.

Bills’ no turnover streak ends in Kansas City
The Bills’ two takeaways were key in their Week 11 win over Kansas City. Buffalo has an NFL-high 35 takeaways and an NFL-low eight turnovers this season (including playoffs). Josh Allen and company have committed zero turnovers in their last four playoff games. They are the first team ever without a turnover in four straight postseason games.
The Bills’ no turnover streak will end Sunday in Kansas City. I predict Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie will pick off Allen and the Bills will also lose a fumble. Buffalo will lose the turnover battle for the first time this postseason, and the giveaways will play a critical role in the team’s loss to Kansas City.

All streaks come to an end at some point. Unfortunately for the Bills, their streak will coincide with a playoff loss.

Saquon Barkley runs into record books with most rushing yards in season including playoffs
The Philadelphia Eagles’ All-Pro running back ended up just short of Eric Dickerson’s storied single-season rushing record when he was kept out of the lineup for the Week 18 finale. But Barkley has a solid shot – how bold is this prediction, really? – at breaking Terrell Davis’ mark for rushing yards in a season including the playoffs (2,476), as he stands just 148 yards away from taking over the top spot. His average in two games against Washington during the regular season: 148.

Washington knows it can’t afford to falter in its run fits, but the league’s 30th-ranked rush defense has continued to spring leaks in key spots. Unless the Commanders can bottle up any potential big gains, a place in NFL history seems like a distinct possibility for Barkley.