With supporters for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris angling for pop superstar Taylor Swift’s vote of confidence, analysts assess the potential impact of such a statement: “It could be pivotal”

With supporters for both Trump and Harris angling for the pop superstar’s vote of confidence, analysts assess the potential effect of such a statement: “It could be pivotal.”

Bad blood appears to abound between supporters for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump heading into November’s tight presidential election. While both sides have enlisted varying degrees of star power at their respective national conventions, there appears to be one figure whose endorsement the two candidates seemingly covet: Taylor Swift.

Trump took to social media recently to share phony images generated by artificial intelligence suggesting that Swift and her fans support him, with the former president writing, “I accept!” Swift, who previously criticized Trump for “stoking the fires of white supremacy and racism,” has yet to endorse either candidate. But given that the pop superstar has asserted her position as one of the most widely known and popular entertainers on the planet with her record-breaking Eras Tour, it’s clear that her support would be heard.

As the female vote will be crucial in swaying the election, Swift’s endorsement could be crucial in influencing young female voters and reinforcing the notion that Harris, like [Barack] Obama before her, is presiding over the support of a movement rather than just a demographic in the national votes,” says Mark Wheeler, professor of political communications at London Metropolitan University and author of Celebrity Politics. “Clearly, Swift’s extraordinary popularity could bolster any candidate’s campaign, and her endorsement might indicate a significant shift in the narrative of the campaign.”

The tangible impact of any celebrity endorsement is difficult to quantify, given the numerous factors that could inform a voter’s choice. But in a close race like this one, experts note that influencing a small number of undecided voters in key battleground states could indeed move the needle, with Oprah Winfrey‘s endorsement of then-presidential candidate Obama in 2007 cited as a pivotal vote of confidence.

It’s the people in the middle — the undecided — that Swift has the most potential to affect,” says Mark Harvey, associate professor at the University of St. Mary and author of Celebrity Influence. “I think it’s going to be very, very marginal, but it could be pivotal in swing states where there may be a very tight margin.”

There was a time when it seemed that a political endorsement from Swift would never, ever come to fruition. The star did not endorse Hillary Clinton when she ran against Trump in 2016, and Swift received flak when she did not attend the Women’s March movement in January 2017, instead tweeting her support for it after the fact. (“Who is Taylor Swift voting for?” was a popular search topic ahead of the 2016 election.)

In October 2018, the singer endorsed two Democratic candidates running for Congress in her home state of Tennessee, and Swift’s support led to a surge in voter registration. Swift tweeted her support for then-nominee Joe Biden in October 2020 and noted that she was a major fan of Harris, his running mate. Both Swift and Beyoncé were the subjects of rampant social media speculation surrounding possible surprise appearances at this week’s Democratic National Convention, but neither attended.

David J. Jackson, professor of political science at Bowling Green State University and author of Entertainment & Politics, sees Swift’s endorsement value as high, due to her likability, the passion among her fan base and her position as a credible voice to her supporters. He also observes heightened impact coming from celebrities who appear to be more selective in the causes they publicly champion.

“[For] a celebrity who becomes known for being the political celebrity, each successive endorsement may carry less weight because more people then start to think, ‘That’s just that celebrity who’s always out there shilling for the Democrats or the Republicans,’” Jackson reasons. “Being selective, strategic and careful about your political statements as a celebrity probably magnifies their significance.”

In a USA Today/Suffolk University national poll from May (back when Biden was the presumptive Democratic candidate), Obama was shown to carry the most weight among public figures (34.6 percent of participants said he would influence their vote), followed closely by Michelle Obama. For prominent entertainers, 15.4 percent of respondents said that Winfrey (a surprise DNC speaker on Wednesday) would have influence over their vote, followed by Charles Barkley at 10.6 percent, Swift at 9.2 percent and Beyoncé — who sang at Obama’s 2013 inauguration and whose song “Freedom” has been a Harris anthem — at 7 percent.

For analysts, celebrity support that is perceived as more organic or subtle could carry extra value. Harvey praises Charli XCX posting last month that “Kamala IS brat” — referencing the singer’s recent album title — which led Harris’ team to change the campaign’s X (formerly Twitter) account to match the Brat branding. Harvey also cites Swift fans who — regardless of whether the singer makes her own political statement — have created the Swifties for Kamala organization to encourage networking, campaign donations and wearing pro-Harris friendship bracelets, given that the fashion accessory has become a staple at Swift’s shows.

While the exact power of celebrity support remains debatable, some involved in voter outreach underscore the continued importance of more tried-and-true methods.

“A little Tay can go a long way, but local organizers are still the best voter mobilizers,” says Zo Tobi of Movement Voter Project, a national progressive funding organization centering on empowering younger voters. “The whole election hinges on a few voters in a few states, and what persuadable voters need most is to hear from people they know, like and trust in their own community.”